编译 | 林伟萍



美东时间6月11日,不息创新高的美股遭遇“暗色星期四”,美股三大股指均以暴跌收盘,道指大跌1861.82点。而这正相符被市场誉为“永久的空头、GMO永久投资策略师及公司说相符创首人杰里米·格兰瑟姆(Jeremy Grantham)对市场发出的预警:“现在的市场好似已迷失于单方笑不悦目之中,但郑重和耐性好似更正当。”

依照资管“先觉”GMO公司的传统,6月4日,公司准期对外发布2020年一季度给投资人的季度信(《1Q 2020 GMO Quarterly Letter》)。在该信件中,行为曾实在展望1989年的日本股市崩盘以及2000年的美国“科技泡沫”和2008年的美国和欧洲的金融危机的传奇投资人,格兰瑟姆在信中坦言:他今年一月份就感觉到情况不妙。在他望来,此次危机,异国确定性可谈;到岁暮,成千上万的公司将会面临债务存量不息增补至巅峰的情况;几乎能够一定的是,V型苏醒望首来期待渺茫。













Jeremy Grantham


My simple life at GMO of focusing most of my efforts on climate change related investing was rudely interrupted by the coronavirus. The virus is a bottomless pit of complexity, contradictory data, and guesswork.


The interactions of the virus with the economy and new economic measures are the same: complex and without precedent.


And the interactions with the market psychology of these medical, financial, economic, and political actions, well, as any self-respecting gangster would say, “Fuhgeddaboudit.” So, starting in late January – yes, I was way ahead of the U.S. and the U.K. administrations, both spectacularly slow to get the point – I have been spending twice my usual total research time on all these new interactions, which for anyone interested in data analysis have presented an amazing challenge. The goodnews is the days flash by. The bad news is that new data arrives faster than humans can keep up with.


For now, let’s get this on the table.


There are no certainties here. At GMO we dealt with three major events prior to this crisis, and rightly or wrongly, we felt “nearly certain” that sooner or later we would be right. We exited Japan 100% in 1987 at 45x and watched it go to 65x (for a second, bigger than the U.S.) before a downward readjustment of 30 years and counting.


In early 1998 we fought the Tech bubble from 21x (equal to the previous record high in 1929) to 35x before a 50% decline, losing many clients and then regaining even more on the round trip. In 2007 we led our clients relatively painlessly through the housing bust. In all three we felt we were nearly certain to be right. Japan, the Tech bubbles, and 1929, which sadly I missed, were not new types of events. They were merely extreme cases akin to South Sea Bubble investor euphoria and madness.


The 2008 event also was easier if you focused on the U.S. housing euphoria, which was a 3-sigma, 100-year event or, simply, unique. We calculated that a return trip to the old price trend and a typical overrun in those extreme house prices would remove $10 trillion of perceived wealth from U.S. consumers and guarantee the worst recession for decades.


All these events echoed historical precedents. And from these precedents we drew confidence.


But this event is unlike all those. It is totally new and there can be no near certainties, merely strong possibilities. This is why Ben Inker, our Head of Asset Allocation, is nervous and this is why you are nervous, or should be.

但这次新冠疫情事件差别于所有这些先例。它是崭新的,并且几乎找不到任何确定性,只有能够性。这就是吾们的资产配置主管本·印克(Ben Inker)主要的因为,也是你们主要的因为,或者说答该主要的因为。

Everyone can see and feel that this is different and can sense the bizarre nature of the market response: we are in the top 10% of historical price earnings ratio for the S&P on prior earnings and simultaneously are in the worst 10% of economic situations, arguably even the worst 1%!


And worse, we had U.S. and global problems looming before the virus: an increasingly disturbed climate causing global floods, droughts, and farming problems; slowing population growth, in the developed world, soon to be negative; and steadily slowing productivity gains, especially in the developed world, and therefore a slowing GDP trend. In the U.S., our 3% a year trend is down to, at best, 1.5% in my opinion. It is closer to a 1% maximum in Europe.


We had, as mentioned, top 10% historical P/Esin the U.S. and much the highest debt level ever in the U.S. for both corporations and peacetime government. So, after a 10-year economic recovery, this would have been a perfectly normal time historically for a setback.


And then the virus hit.


Simultaneously, it is causing supply and demand shocks unlike anything before. Ever. It is generating a much faster economic contraction than that of the Great Depression. And unlike 1989 Japan, 2000 Tech (U.S.), and 2008 (U.S. and Europe), it is truly global. The drop in GDP and rise in unemployment in four weeks have equaled what took one to four years to reach in the Great Depression and were never reached in the other events.


Rogoff & Reinhart, Harvard Professors who wrote the definitive analysis of the 2008 bust, agree that this event is indeed completely different and suggest it will take at least 5 years to regain 2019 levels of activity. But this is a guess. We really don’t know how long it will take. Nearly certain is that a V-shaped recovery looks like a lost hope. The best possible outcome would be that there will be, almost miraculously, billions of doses of effective vaccine by year-end.


But most viruses have never had a useful vaccine and most useful vaccines have taken well over five years to develop and when developed have been only partially successful. Yes, this time there will be an enormous effort with unprecedented spending. But still, a leading vaccine expert says quick success would be like “drawing successfully to several inside straights in a row.”And even if all works out well with a vaccine there will remain deep economic wounds.


Bankruptcies have already started (Hertz on May 22nd) and by year-end thousands of them will arrive into a peak of already existing corporate debt. It will need spectacular management, which it may get. But it may not. Throwing money – paper and electronic impulses – at the problem can help psychology and, particularly, the stock market, where extra stimulus money can end up but does not necessarily put people back to work; there will be up to 20% unemployment for at least a moment.


Sound and massive infrastructure spending would address the problem better, including greening both the grid and energy production. At least the size and speed of the initial financial help, which fortunately we learned to do in the housing financial bust, has saved us from the certainty of Great Depression II. But this is only round one. And many global administrations are, shall we say, not consistently sensible.


Unanticipatable outcomes seem to be guaranteed. We will all have had an enforced several months of introspection. This could turn out to be a fulcrum, or tipping point, for new social and business trends: deficiencies in capitalism; inequality; climate change and our environment: limited resources in a finite world; our current high consumption economy; growth at any price.Attitudes to several of these factors were already beginning to shift before the virus. Resistance to the downsides of the status quo was already stirring. Now, all may be up for grabs.


In short, we have never lived in a period where the future was so uncertain. Yet the market is 10% below its previous high in January when, superficially at least, everything seemed fine in economics and finance. And if not “fine,” well, good enough.


The future paths include many that could change corporate profitability, growth, and many aspects of capitalism, society, and the global political scene. Some perhaps for the better, but some not. The key here is uncertainty, which in some ways seems the highest in my experience. So, in terms of risk and return – particularly of the worst possible outcomes compared to the best – the current market seems lost in one-sided optimism when prudence and patience seem much more appropriate.




The few-line summary of my argument is this: the current P/E on the U.S. market is in the top 10% of its history. The U.S. economy in contrast is in its worst 10%, perhaps even the worst 1%. In addition, everything is uncertain, perhaps to a unique degree. The market’s P/E level typically reflects current conditions (please see Appendix).


Markets have historically loved fat margins, low inflation, stability and, by inference, low levels of uncertainty. This is apparently one of the most impressive mismatches in history. That being said, this is a new type of crisis and much will be different. There are no certainties but there are probably still some better and safer themes. Caution and patience are likely to be two of them.



7月15日,路虎正式发布了新款路虎揽胜家族车型的官方图片,这其中包含了揽胜及揽胜运动版。作为改款车型,新车的外观与现款车型保持一致,主要的变化在于动力新增了3.0T柴油发动机 48V轻混系统车型。

内饰部分,新车与现款车型保持一致,针对车机系统进行了升级,增加了Apple CarPlay和Android Auto互联系统。另外,新车还配备了全新的空气过滤系统,可有效减少空气中的有害物质进入车内。


©深响原创 · 作者|吕玥

原标题:驱蚊拍拍舞 一一丫丫 一一丫丫妈妈 大家可以帮我艾特一下吗?


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